DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/20 10:49
Corn Lower, Beans, Wheat Higher at Midday Monday
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower; beans are 1 to 2 cents higher and wheat
trade is 3 to 14 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker at midday with the S&P 500 30 points lower.
The dollar index is 35 points lower. The interest rate products are firmer.
Energies have crude 1.50 lower and natural gas .02 lower. Livestock trade is
firmer. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $14.00.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower with early short covering fading again as
we remain oversold at fresh lows. Ethanol margins remain stable with unleaded
phasing in spring blends, and cheaper natural gas helping to support margins
along with corn at the low end of the range, but there are rumored changes to
the Sustainable aviation fuel standards potential coming to limit uptake
potential there, but it looks like year around E15 will be cleared for 2025.
The daily wire saw 155,000 metric tons of new crop sold to Japan with weekly
inspections solid at 918,610 metric tons. Basis has stayed steady as we head
towards the end of the month and the farmer position is expected to weigh
further. Early second-crop corn planting in Brazil is moving along at a good
clip. On the March chart, the 20-day at $4.37 is nearby resistance with the
Lower Bollinger Band at $4.14 just above the $4.14 3/4 fresh low as support.
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade fading from the
initial gap high as meal values lead the product complex and we hold Friday's
strength. Meal is 3.50 to 4.50 higher and oil is 50 to 60 points lower as crude
weakness weighs on soy oil. South American weather should continue to the
recent pattern into mid-month with harvest moving along further with some
concerns about drier short-term weather in Argentina short term. The daily wire
saw 228,000 metric tons of meal sold to Philippines with weekly export
inspections solid at 1.186 million metric tons. Basis should remain flat short
term domestically. The March soybeans have resistance at the 20-day moving
average at $11.98. The $11.62 fresh low is nearby support with the lower
Bollinger Band just below that at 11.58.
Wheat trade is 3 to 14 cents higher at midday with broader short covering as
we reached oversold levels to end last week while the nearby inverses persist
with solid spread action to start the week. The plains will see warmer than
normal temps persist into March with better moisture possibilities the second
week. The dollar remains elevated but off the highs with early weakness today
with Matif wheat bouncing off the fresh lows scored yesterday. Weekly export
inspections remained rangebound at 380,774 metric tons. On the KC March Chart,
resistance is at the 20-day moving average at $6.12 which we are now well
below. Support is the fresh low at $5.63 with the lower Bollinger Band just
above that at $5.69.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com.
Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala.
(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
Your local weather forecast from DTN can be sent to your email every morning free through DTN Snapshot